Evaluating the Larry Nance Jr. Trade

 

    The Cavs traded Larry Nance Jr. and a Second-Round Pick for Lauri Markkanen today, sources told Woj. In typical Cavs twitter fashion, everybody's heads exploded and we all argued. So, in a change of tone I'm going to give my unbiased evaluation of this trade. Here's what the Cavs lose in Larry, and what I think the Cavs gain in Markkanen.

What the Cavs lose with Larry Nance Jr. Gone

    Larry Nance Jr. was a fan favorite, that's an understatement. This is the main cause of anger amongst Cavs fans right now. Admittedly, I'm the same way. I love Larry, and I never wanted to see him go. But let's take a step back here and actually look at what the Cavs lost...

    Cleveland loses their best defender, a strong veteran presence, and of course the add-on of wanting to play in Cleveland. That last thing means something to a lot of Cavs fans, so it's important to note. 

  Larry's impact this season shows up most in his On/Off splits. When Larry went down with an injury prior to the month of February last season, the Cavs were only allowing opposing teams to score 108.6 PPG. This mark would've been good enough for 7th in the NBA. However, following the wrist injury that doomed the 2020-21 Cavs, the Cavs surrendered 118.8 PPG in February. This mark would be 30th in the league. The Cavs DRtg dropped by 7, and the Cavs NetRtg dropped by 2.7 with Nance off the court.

    The Cavs will miss this level of defensive intensity and overall impact next season. But their long-term plan ultimately resides in the hands of Evan Mobley, who they hope, and clearly believe, can do the same in the coming years.

What Lauri Markkanen Brings to Cleveland

    The Cavs biggest need going into this off-season was clear as day, shooting. Especially with the addition of Evan Mobley to an already crowded front court. So what did they do? They added a shooter. 

    Lauri Markkanen, despite his flaws, is a great shooter. He shoots 40.2% from 3 on 5.8 attempts per game. This brings two things to the Cavs that they needed, 3-PT volume and 3-PT%. The Cavs ranked bottom 3 in both categories. This aspect of Markkanen's game will have the opportunity to give the Cavs offense a major boost.

    The supposed catch here is that Markkanen will not bring the same level of impact to the Cavs that Larry did. As mentioned earlier, Larry Nance Jr. is the ultimate floor raiser. He raises the Cavs DRtg and NetRtg by a pretty solid amount. The same cannot be said for Lauri Markkanen. The Bulls ORtg raised by 3.2 with Markkanen off the court last season, which is a decent amount. However, the Bulls DRtg was slightly better with Markkanen on the court. Chicago's DRtg dropped by a slight 0.8 with Lauri off the court. I'm not here to argue about Markkanen's defensive abilities because it's well established that he's not a very good defender. But stats are stats.

    The Cavs clearly fill a need by bringing in Markkanen, but lose out on intangibles and on-court impact with the loss of Nance. And this leads us to our final thought:

 Evaluating the Cost

    The Cavs brought in Lauri Markkanen on a sign-and-trade. This means they had to give up assets and sign him to a long-term deal. Outside of the young-core, Nance was seen as the Cavs most valuable trade asset. Last trade deadline, rumors swirled about teams offering multiple FRPs for LNJ. So only getting Lauri Markkanen in a deal centered around Nance is why this return feels very underwhelming to many people. Additionally, The Cavs signed Markkanen to a 4-year, $67M deal. The 4th year of the deal, only 6 million of the 18 million dollars is guaranteed. Thus, the biggest issue with this deal, the Cavs overpaid for Lauri Markkanen's contract. 

    After letting it bake for 3 hours or so, I've come around to the potential tools Lauri brings to Cleveland, but that contract is not team friendly and feels like a big "downer" on the whole situation. The Cavs made this trade based on potential upside. This contract was signed on potential upside. If it pays off, and Markkanen figures out a lot of his struggles in Cleveland, then this contract may look genius in 3 years.

    But, at the end of the day, only time will tell how this all plays out.